Background
This analysis is based on an older version of our inference model which is accurate but more difficult to read

Question

Did Adnan act like a possessive boyfriend?

Serial: Who killed Hae Min Lee?

Scenariosinfo icon

Calculated Conclusionsinfo icon

Conclusionsinfo icon

1

97.2%
No:
No.
97.2%

2

2.8%
Yes:
Yes.
2.8%
Implied plausibility
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Likelihoods based only on other elements of the analysis, not considering evidence of this sub-topic.
No
64%
Yes
36%
Compatibility with evidence
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Likelihoods based only on evidence of this sub-topic, assuming all hypotheses equally plausible.
No
97.2%
Yes
2.8%
Conclusion
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Final likelihoods, combining plausibility and evidence.
No
97.2%
Yes
2.8%

Analysis

Evidence (6 items)

Adnan and Hae acted cordially and seemed to get along after they broke up.

Sources: Sarah Koenig, producer of Serial, Debbie Warren (friend of Hae) and Rebecca Walker (friend of Adnan)
No
79%
Yes
21%
No
79%
Yes
21%

Adnan flirted and had casual relationships with other women in the weeks leading up to Hae's death, after Hae broke up with him.

Sources: Sarah Koenig, producer of Serial
No
63%
Yes
37%
No
63%
Yes
37%
Hae felt that Adnan was possessive and over-protective.
Sources: Hae's diary, Debbie Warren, a friend of Hae
No
25%
Yes
75%
No
25%
Yes
75%

The prosecution failed to find or include testimony from friends or acquaintances of Adnan that indicated that he behaved possessively, either with Hae, or with other women with whom he had relationships.

No
91%
Yes
9%
No
91%
Yes
9%

Hae felt that Adnan didn't accept her decision to break up with him.

Sources: Hae's letter to Adnan
No
36%
Yes
64%
No
36%
Yes
64%
Jay's girlfriend (
Stephanie
) testified that Adnan had never assaulted Hae in any way.
Sources: Court transcripts
No
61%
Yes
39%
No
61%
Yes
39%

Discussioninfo icon

This topic is part of a broader analysis. To view the discussion page of the main analysis, click below:
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Aparna DaVinch
Mar 12, 2018 at 2:29 AM
Hae felt that Adnan was possessive and over-protective.