This analysis is based on an older version of our inference model which is accurate but more difficult to read
Question
Did former New England Patriots tight end Aaron Hernandez commit suicide?
17 May, 2017Hypotheses
Calculated Conclusions
Conclusions
1
96.7%
Yes. Hernandez killed himself.
[1]
96.7%
2
3.3%
No. Someone else killed Hernandez.
[2]
3.3%
Summary
On April 19, 2017, former New England Patriots tight end Aaron Hernandez, in prison with a life sentence for the murder of Odin Lloyd, was found hanging in his jail cell and pronounced dead. Five days earlier Hernandez had been acquitted in a double murder case (the homicides of Daniel de Abreu and Safiro Furtado). Although Hernandez's death was officially ruled a suicide, his fiancee and lawyers have questioned that conclusion.
The Rootclaim analysis finds that it is highly likely that Hernandez killed himself. As a starting point, prison suicides are generally more common than prison homicides. Moreover, when Hernandez was found, his cell door was jammed shut from the inside, which would be difficult to do from outside the cell. Illuminati and biblical references written on the wall of Hernandez's cell as well as Hernandez's being found nude are more likely under suicide, triggered by a psychotic break from reality. This preponderance of evidence overcomes the lack of evidence that Hernandez had any prior psychotic symptoms.
Key Evidence
Contribution
1
There is no available evidence that Hernandez suffered from psychosis beforehand.
Suicide
12%
Homicide
88%
Suicide
12%
Homicide
88%
2
There were Illuminati references drawn on Hernandez's cell walls in blood.
Sources: New York Post
Suicide
83%
Homicide
17%
Suicide
83%
Homicide
17%
3
Cardboard was jammed under the door to make it more difficult to open from the outside and shampoo was on the floor.
Sources: Police report
Suicide
81%
Homicide
19%
Suicide
81%
Homicide
19%
4
Hernandez was naked when he was found.
Sources: Chicago Tribune
Suicide
75%
Homicide
25%
Suicide
75%
Homicide
25%
5
An autopsy performed by the state medical examiner's office determined that the cause of Hernandez's death was asphyxia by hanging and the manner of death was suicide, failing to find evidence of any struggle before Hernandez died.
Sources: Boston Globe
Suicide
71%
Homicide
29%
Suicide
71%
Homicide
29%
Combined contribution of 19 remaining elements.
Suicide
85%
Homicide
15%
Analysis
Evidence
Starting Point (1 item)
Prior violence (3 items)
Hernandez threatened a corrections officer while in prison.
Sources: Department of Corrections report
Suicide
48%
Homicide
52%
Suicide
48%
Homicide
52%
Hernandez was involved in a number of fights with other inmates.
Sources: Prison disciplinary records
Suicide
44%
Homicide
56%
Suicide
44%
Homicide
56%
Hernandez was part of the Bloods gang.
Sources: Department of Correction report, TMZ Sports
Suicide
44%
Homicide
56%
Suicide
44%
Homicide
56%
Relationships (2 items)
Scenario A:
Yes, Kennedy and Hernandez were lovers.
Scenario B:
No, Kennedy and Hernandez were not lovers.
Suicide
47%
Homicide
53%
Suicide
47%
Homicide
53%
Suicide
46%
Homicide
54%
Suicide
46%
Homicide
54%
Letters (2 items)
A letter to Hernandez's fiancee, Shayana Jenkins-Hernandez, found with Hernandez was addressed to "Shay," was short and not intimate.
Sources: Shayana Jenkins-Hernandez (Hernandez's fiancee)
Suicide
46%
Homicide
54%
Suicide
46%
Homicide
54%
The letter to Shayana Jenkins-Hernandez stated "You're Rich."
Sources: Massachusetts court officials
Suicide
70%
Homicide
30%
Suicide
70%
Homicide
30%
Prison cell (5 items)
Hernandez was found in his prison cell.
Sources: Massachusetts Department of Correction
Suicide
59%
Homicide
41%
Suicide
59%
Homicide
41%
Hernandez was found with "John 3:16" written on his forehead and on the wall of his prison cell and a Bible opened to John 3:16.
Sources: Police report
Suicide
66%
Homicide
34%
Suicide
66%
Homicide
34%
There were Illuminati references drawn on Hernandez's cell walls in blood.
Sources: New York Post
Suicide
83%
Homicide
17%
Suicide
83%
Homicide
17%
Cardboard was jammed under the door to make it more difficult to open from the outside and shampoo was on the floor.
Sources: Police report
Suicide
81%
Homicide
19%
Suicide
81%
Homicide
19%
Hernandez was naked when he was found.
Sources: Chicago Tribune
Suicide
75%
Homicide
25%
Suicide
75%
Homicide
25%
Forensics (3 items)
An autopsy performed by the state medical examiner's office determined that the cause of Hernandez's death was asphyxia by hanging and the manner of death was suicide, failing to find evidence of any struggle before Hernandez died.
Sources: Boston Globe
Suicide
71%
Homicide
29%
Suicide
71%
Homicide
29%
Hernandez's blood tested negative for drugs.
Sources: ABC News
Suicide
46%
Homicide
54%
Suicide
46%
Homicide
54%
Hernandez had a severe case of chronic traumatic encephalopathy (CTE), a degenerative brain disease.
Sources: Dr. Ann McKee, director of the CTE Center at Boston University
Suicide
61%
Homicide
39%
Suicide
61%
Homicide
39%
Prior warning (6 items)
Suicide
37%
Homicide
63%
Suicide
37%
Homicide
63%
Hernandez had given away some of his personal belongings to other inmates.
Sources: Unnamed source
Suicide
61%
Homicide
39%
Suicide
61%
Homicide
39%
Hernandez had concrete plans for the immediate future.
Sources: Massachusetts Department of Correction report
Suicide
44%
Homicide
56%
Suicide
44%
Homicide
56%
Inmates close to Hernandez reported that he had been upbeat and optimistic about his long-term future in the days leading up to his death.
Sources: Inmates at Souza-Baranowski prison
Suicide
44%
Homicide
56%
Suicide
44%
Homicide
56%
Hernandez discussed suicide prior to his death.
Suicide
62%
Homicide
38%
Suicide
62%
Homicide
38%
There is no available evidence that Hernandez suffered from psychosis beforehand.
Suicide
12%
Homicide
88%
Suicide
12%
Homicide
88%
Other evidence (2 items)
Hernandez's body was discovered at 3 AM; the guard who was supposed to make a round of inspection at 2 AM skipped his round.
Sources: Executive Office of Public Safety (EOPS) report
Suicide
49%
Homicide
51%
Suicide
49%
Homicide
51%
Hernandez's death came five days after being acquitted of double murder.
Sources: Boston Globe
Suicide
47%
Homicide
53%
Suicide
47%
Homicide
53%
Storyline Assumptions
Assumptions that derive from the evidence above are presented and evaluated here for each hypothesis.
Storyline assumptions:
Likelihood given hypothesis
(including preceding assumptions)
Discussion