Background
This analysis is based on an older version of our inference model which is accurate but more difficult to read

Question

Was Don working (in the Hunt Valley LensCrafters store) on January 13?

Serial: Who killed Hae Min Lee?

Scenariosinfo icon

Calculated Conclusionsinfo icon

Conclusionsinfo icon

1

77%
Alibi true:
Yes, Don was working that day.
77%

2

23%
Alibi false:
No, Don was not working that day, but documents were falsified to make it seem as if he did.
23%
Implied plausibility
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Likelihoods based only on other elements of the analysis, not considering evidence of this sub-topic.
Alibi true
54%
Alibi false
46%
Compatibility with evidence
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Likelihoods based only on evidence of this sub-topic, assuming all hypotheses equally plausible.
Alibi true
77%
Alibi false
23%
Conclusion
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Final likelihoods, combining plausibility and evidence.
Alibi true
77%
Alibi false
23%

Analysis

Evidence (5 items)

Don's working hours on January 13 were corroborated to the police by the manager at the Owings Mills store, in which Don usually worked.
Sources: Baltimore County Police Department
Alibi true
62%
Alibi false
38%
Alibi true
62%
Alibi false
38%
There was no regular 9 AM to 6 PM shift assigned at the Hunt Valley store's lab.
Sources: LensCrafters
Alibi true
33%
Alibi false
67%
Alibi true
33%
Alibi false
67%
Don’s timesheet at the Hunt Valley store had a different employee number than his timesheet at the Owings Mills store (in which Don usually worked).
Don's Owings Mills timesheet, associate ID #0162
Don's Owings Mills timesheet, associate ID #0162
viewfromll2.com
Alibi true
43%
Alibi false
57%
Alibi true
43%
Alibi false
57%
In Don's timesheet at the Hunt Valley store, there's a discrepancy between the total hours and the clocked hours.
Don's Hunt Valley timesheet
Don's Hunt Valley timesheet
viewfromll2.com
Alibi true
75%
Alibi false
25%
Alibi true
75%
Alibi false
25%
Don's timesheet at the Hunt Valley store says that Don worked there on Saturday (January 16), in addition to Wednesday (January 13).
Don's Hunt Valley timesheet
Don's Hunt Valley timesheet
viewfromll2.com
Alibi true
60%
Alibi false
40%
Alibi true
60%
Alibi false
40%

Discussioninfo icon

This topic is part of a broader analysis. To view the discussion page of the main analysis, click below:
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