Background
This analysis is based on an older version of our inference model which is accurate but more difficult to read

Question

Was Hae still at school around 2:30-2:45 PM on January 13?

Serial: Who killed Hae Min Lee?

Scenariosinfo icon

Calculated Conclusionsinfo icon

Conclusionsinfo icon

1

54%
Yes:

Yes.

54%

2

46%
No:

No.

46%
Implied plausibility
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Likelihoods based only on other elements of the analysis, not considering evidence of this sub-topic.
Yes
40%
No
60%
Compatibility with evidence
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Likelihoods based only on evidence of this sub-topic, assuming all hypotheses equally plausible.
Yes
54%
No
46%
Conclusion
info icon
Final likelihoods, combining plausibility and evidence.
Yes
54%
No
46%

Analysis

Evidence (3 items)

According to Summer (Hae's friend), on January 13 Hae talked with her in school around 2:45 - 3:00 PM regarding a wrestling match with Randallstown that evening.

Sources: The View From LL2
Yes
56%
No
44%
Yes
56%
No
44%

According to Inez Butler (a teacher at Hae's school), she had a conversation with Hae in school around 2:30 PM on January 13 in which Hae said that she would be back for the wrestling match that was scheduled for after 5:00 PM.

Sources: The View From LL2
Yes
56%
No
44%
Yes
56%
No
44%

According to

Debbie
, Hae was at school between 2:45 - 3:15 PM.

Sources: EvidenceProf Blog
Interview with Debbie Warren
Interview with Debbie Warren
www.splitthemoon.com
Yes
53%
No
47%
Yes
53%
No
47%

Discussioninfo icon

This topic is part of a broader analysis. To view the discussion page of the main analysis, click below:
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