This analysis is based on an older version of our inference model which is accurate but more difficult to read
Question
Was Russia monitoring the convoy within two hours of the attack?
11 Oct, 2016This topic is part of a broader analysis on Who attacked the aid convoy in Syria on September 19, 2016?
Scenarios
Calculated Conclusions
Conclusions
1
72%
No, Russia was not monitoring the convoy within two hours of the attack
72%
2
28%
Yes, Russia was monitoring the convoy within two hours of the attack
28%
Implied plausibility
Likelihoods based only on other elements of the analysis, not considering evidence of this sub-topic.
No
79%
Yes
21%
Compatibility with evidence
Likelihoods based only on evidence of this sub-topic, assuming all hypotheses equally plausible.
No
72%
Yes
28%
Conclusion
Final likelihoods, combining plausibility and evidence.
No
72%
Yes
28%
Analysis
Evidence (3 items)
Russian officials admitted that a Russian drone tracked the aid convoy on the day of the attack.
Sources: RT
No
38%
Yes
62%
No
38%
Yes
62%
The Russian Ministry of Defense claims Russia stopped tracking the convoy at 1:40 PM.
Sources: RT
No
58%
Yes
42%
No
58%
Yes
42%
Livestream photos released by the Russian Defense Ministry show the convoy within two hours of the attack.
Sources: Conflict Intelligence Team
No
45%
Yes
55%
No
45%
Yes
55%
Discussion
Who attacked the aid convoy in Syria on September 19, 2016?