This analysis is based on an older version of our inference model which is accurate but more difficult to read
Question
Was the July 28, 2015, Serbian lottery drawing rigged?
06 Sep, 2015Hypotheses
Calculated Conclusions
Conclusions
1
99.5%
The Serbian lottery drawing that was broadcast on July 28, 2015 was carried out legitimately.
[1]
99.5%
2
0.5%
The Serbian lottery drawing that was broadcast on July 28, 2015 was rigged, but the video of the drawing does not show evidence of the rigging.
0.5%
3
0.02%
The Serbian lottery drawing that was broadcast on July 28, 2015 was rigged, and the video of the drawing shows evidence of the rigging.
[2]
0.02%
Summary
On July 28, 2015, a live broadcast of the Serbian lottery drawing appeared to show one of the winning numbers before it was drawn. This led to widespread accusations of corruption in the media, and an official investigation into the circumstances of the irregularities.
Even though the errors in the drawing looked suspicious to the average viewer, it is actually far more likely that the errors were caused by a genuine mistake than by corruption. This is primarily because lottery rigging is quite rare, and also because reasonable rigging methods are not likely to cause the type of mix-up seen in the video. Specifically, there is little need for the typist to type numbers from memory (or a note), rather than typing the numbers coming out of the machine (even if they are involved in the plot). Furthermore, mixing up the numbers 21 and 27 is a plausible mistake (unlike mixing up numbers like 5 and 20, for instance, which would be much more suspicious). Lastly, there was no jackpot winner of the drawing, which means that there was no clear benefit that would result from rigging the drawing.
Key Evidence
Contribution
1
Nobody won the jackpot.
Sources: Serbian Lottery
Legitimate drawing
72%
Rigged, no evidence
14%
Rigged, video evidence
14%
Legitimate drawing
72%
Rigged, no evidence
14%
Rigged, video evidence
14%
2
When the fourth number was drawn (27), the wrong number (21) was displayed in the on-screen graphic. The mistakenly displayed number (21) was the same as the number of the fifth ball.
Legitimate drawing
17%
Rigged, no evidence
17%
Rigged, video evidence
67%
Legitimate drawing
17%
Rigged, no evidence
17%
Rigged, video evidence
67%
Combined contribution of 7 remaining elements.
Legitimate drawing
30%
Rigged, no evidence
66%
Rigged, video evidence
3.3%
Analysis
Evidence
Starting Point (1 item)
Irregularities in the Drawing (3 items)
When the fourth number was drawn (27), the wrong number (21) was displayed in the on-screen graphic. The mistakenly displayed number (21) was the same as the number of the fifth ball.
Legitimate drawing
17%
Rigged, no evidence
17%
Rigged, video evidence
67%
Legitimate drawing
17%
Rigged, no evidence
17%
Rigged, video evidence
67%
The mistake was corrected in a sloppy manner: the correct number of the fourth ball (27) was added to the on-screen display without erasing the incorrect number (21) that was still displayed in the fourth position. After the fifth number was drawn, the on-screen graphic showed the correct number of the fourth ball (27) four times before the graphic disappeared completely.
Legitimate drawing
38%
Rigged, no evidence
42%
Rigged, video evidence
20%
Legitimate drawing
38%
Rigged, no evidence
42%
Rigged, video evidence
20%
The host of the show was visibly confused.
Legitimate drawing
43%
Rigged, no evidence
43%
Rigged, video evidence
15%
Legitimate drawing
43%
Rigged, no evidence
43%
Rigged, video evidence
15%
State Lottery Reaction (3 items)
The State Lottery blamed the on-screen graphic irregularities on a technical error caused by the person who filled out the television graphic.
Sources: The Serbian State Lottery
Legitimate drawing
43%
Rigged, no evidence
43%
Rigged, video evidence
14%
Legitimate drawing
43%
Rigged, no evidence
43%
Rigged, video evidence
14%
The results of the draw stand.
Sources: The Serbian State Lottery
Legitimate drawing
34%
Rigged, no evidence
33%
Rigged, video evidence
33%
Legitimate drawing
34%
Rigged, no evidence
33%
Rigged, video evidence
33%
The lottery director resigned on moral grounds.
Sources: The Serbian State Lottery
Legitimate drawing
16%
Rigged, no evidence
31%
Rigged, video evidence
54%
Legitimate drawing
16%
Rigged, no evidence
31%
Rigged, video evidence
54%
Other evidence (2 items)
The Serbian State Lottery uses an
air-mix
machine to select the numbers for the drawing.
Legitimate drawing
46%
Rigged, no evidence
47%
Rigged, video evidence
6%
Legitimate drawing
46%
Rigged, no evidence
47%
Rigged, video evidence
6%
Nobody won the jackpot.
Sources: Serbian Lottery
Legitimate drawing
72%
Rigged, no evidence
14%
Rigged, video evidence
14%
Legitimate drawing
72%
Rigged, no evidence
14%
Rigged, video evidence
14%
Storyline Assumptions
Assumptions that derive from the evidence above are presented and evaluated here for each hypothesis.
Storyline assumptions:
Likelihood given hypothesis
(including preceding assumptions)
Discussion
Nobody won the jackpot.
The second digit of the fourth number drawn was different from the second digit as displayed in the on-screen graphic. (The fourth number in the draw was 27, but the onscreen graphic showed 21.)