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Background
This analysis is based on an older version of our inference model which is accurate but more difficult to read

Question

Were two Iranian passengers (Pouria Nourmohammadi and Delavar Seyed Mohammad Reza) on Malaysia Airlines flight 370 traveling on stolen passports? If so, why?

13 Apr, 2015

This topic is part of a broader analysis on

What caused the disappearance of Malaysia Airlines flight 370?

Scenariosinfo icon

Calculated Conclusionsinfo icon

Conclusionsinfo icon

1

90%
Stolen - asylum:

The two Iranian passengers were traveling on stolen passports because they were fleeing to Europe.

90%

2

4.9%
Stolen - other:

The two Iranian passengers were traveling on stolen passports for a reason other than hijacking or fleeing to Europe.

4.9%

3

4.9%
Not stolen:

The two Iranian passengers were not traveling on stolen passports.

4.9%

4

0.002%
Stolen - hijacking:

The two Iranian passengers were traveling on stolen passports because they were hijacking the plane.

0.002%
Implied plausibility
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Likelihoods based only on other elements of the analysis, not considering evidence of this sub-topic.
Stolen - asylum
0.5%
Stolen - other
1%
Not stolen
98.5%
Stolen - hijacking
0.001%
Compatibility with evidence
info icon
Likelihoods based only on evidence of this sub-topic, assuming all hypotheses equally plausible.
Stolen - asylum
90%
Stolen - other
4.9%
Not stolen
4.9%
Stolen - hijacking
0.002%
Conclusion
info icon
Final likelihoods, combining plausibility and evidence.
Stolen - asylum
90%
Stolen - other
4.9%
Not stolen
4.9%
Stolen - hijacking
0.002%

Analysis

Evidence (4 items)

Two Iranian passengers on board MH370, Pouria Nourmohammadi Mehrdad and Delavar Seyed Mohammadreza, were using stolen passports.

Sources: Interpol and Malaysian police chief Khalid Abu Bakar
Pouria Nourmohammadi Mehrdad and Delavar Seyed Mohammadreza
Pouria Nourmohammadi Mehrdad and Delavar Seyed Mohammadreza
totalnewswire.com
Stolen - asylum
33%
Stolen - other
33%
Not stolen
0.3%
Stolen - hijacking
33%
Stolen - asylum
33%
Stolen - other
33%
Not stolen
0.3%
Stolen - hijacking
33%

The Iranian passengers traveling on flight MH370 said they hoped to resettle (in Europe).

Sources: A young Iranian in Kuala Lumpur who spoke to the BBC
Stolen - asylum
42%
Stolen - other
19%
Not stolen
19%
Stolen - hijacking
20%
Stolen - asylum
42%
Stolen - other
19%
Not stolen
19%
Stolen - hijacking
20%

The mother of Pouria Nourmohammadi was waiting for her son's connecting flight (in Frankfurt) and contacted the Malaysian authorities when her son was not in touch with her.

Sources: Malaysian police chief Khalid Abu Bakar
Pouria Nourmohammadi (R); his mother and his brother (L)
Pouria Nourmohammadi (R); his mother and his brother (L)
www.news.com.au
Stolen - asylum
49%
Stolen - other
22%
Not stolen
22%
Stolen - hijacking
7%
Stolen - asylum
49%
Stolen - other
22%
Not stolen
22%
Stolen - hijacking
7%

Delavar Seyed Mohammad Reza was looking to resettle (in Sweden).

Sources: A Swedish relative of Delavar Seyed Mohammad Reza
Delavar Seyed Mohammad Reza (2nd from right) and friends
Delavar Seyed Mohammad Reza (2nd from right) and friends
www.news.com.au
Stolen - asylum
69%
Stolen - other
9%
Not stolen
9%
Stolen - hijacking
12%
Stolen - asylum
69%
Stolen - other
9%
Not stolen
9%
Stolen - hijacking
12%

Discussioninfo icon

This topic is part of a broader analysis. To view the discussion page of the main analysis, click below:
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Steven
Oct 13, 2016 at 10:52 AM

The Iranian passengers traveling on flight MH370 said they hoped to resettle (in Europe).

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Rootclaim
Oct 13, 2016 at 1:26 PM
This was a comment made to a friend, not necessarily something they were using as a cover story.
user avatar
Darin Rogers
Oct 13, 2016 at 1:05 PM
Or maybe they would tell such a story because it is believable and they wanted to have a good cover-up story.