Background
This analysis is based on an older version of our inference model which is accurate but more difficult to read

Question

Who called in the anonymous Crime Stoppers tip that led police to Adnan?

Serial: Who killed Hae Min Lee?

Scenariosinfo icon

Calculated Conclusionsinfo icon

Conclusionsinfo icon

1

75%
Other, uninvolved:

Someone else (not Jay), who was not involved in the murder/burial.

75%

2

19%
Other, involved:
Someone else (not Jay), who was involved in the murder/burial..
19%

3

4.8%
Jay, uninvolved:
Jay, who was not involved in the murder/burial.
4.8%

4

1.3%
Jay, involved:
Jay, who was involved in the murder/burial.
1.3%
Implied plausibility
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Likelihoods based only on other elements of the analysis, not considering evidence of this sub-topic.
Other, uninvolved
75%
Other, involved
19%
Jay, uninvolved
4.3%
Jay, involved
1.5%
Compatibility with evidence
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Likelihoods based only on evidence of this sub-topic, assuming all hypotheses equally plausible.
Other, uninvolved
75%
Other, involved
19%
Jay, uninvolved
4.8%
Jay, involved
1.3%
Conclusion
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Final likelihoods, combining plausibility and evidence.
Other, uninvolved
75%
Other, involved
19%
Jay, uninvolved
4.8%
Jay, involved
1.3%

Analysis

Evidence (4 items)

In an anonymous phone call on February 1, 1999 and/or February 12, 1999 advising the police to focus on Adnan, the voice on the phone sounded like an "Asian male 18-21 years old."

Sources: Serial
An anonymous caller told police to focus on Adnan
An anonymous caller told police to focus on Adnan
www.splitthemoon.com
Other, uninvolved
27%
Other, involved
27%
Jay, uninvolved
23%
Jay, involved
23%
Other, uninvolved
27%
Other, involved
27%
Jay, uninvolved
23%
Jay, involved
23%

Police notes from Jay's third interview with the police on March 18, 1999 include a reference to a motorcycle for sale (“Mr. Brown” selling a Suzuki motorcycle, 600 CCs, with 9000 miles on it). Police then interviewed Karl Brown, the soccer coach at Woodlawn High, on March 23-24. Their pre-interview notes mention the Suzuki motorcycle that Brown had owned and sold.

Sources: Undisclosed
Other, uninvolved
25%
Other, involved
25%
Jay, uninvolved
26%
Jay, involved
25%
Other, uninvolved
25%
Other, involved
25%
Jay, uninvolved
26%
Jay, involved
25%

Police notes from Jay's interview with the police on March 18, 1999 include​ the word "reward."

Sources: Undisclosed
Other, uninvolved
24%
Other, involved
24%
Jay, uninvolved
29%
Jay, involved
24%
Other, uninvolved
24%
Other, involved
24%
Jay, uninvolved
29%
Jay, involved
24%
Approximately $3075 was awarded to an anonymous informant on December 1, 1999.
Sources: Undisclosed
Other, uninvolved
25%
Other, involved
25%
Jay, uninvolved
25%
Jay, involved
25%
Other, uninvolved
25%
Other, involved
25%
Jay, uninvolved
25%
Jay, involved
25%

Discussioninfo icon

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