This analysis is based on an older version of our inference model which is accurate but more difficult to read
Question
Who called in the anonymous Crime Stoppers tip that led police to Adnan?
13 Dec, 2016Scenarios
Calculated Conclusions
Conclusions
1
75%
Someone else (not Jay), who was not involved in the murder/burial.
75%
2
19%
Someone else (not Jay), who was involved in the murder/burial..
19%
3
4.8%
Jay, who was not involved in the murder/burial.
4.8%
4
1.3%
Jay, who was involved in the murder/burial.
1.3%
Implied plausibility
Other, uninvolved
75%
Other, involved
19%
Jay, uninvolved
4.3%
Jay, involved
1.5%
Compatibility with evidence
Other, uninvolved
75%
Other, involved
19%
Jay, uninvolved
4.8%
Jay, involved
1.3%
Conclusion
Other, uninvolved
75%
Other, involved
19%
Jay, uninvolved
4.8%
Jay, involved
1.3%
Analysis
Evidence (4 items)
In an anonymous phone call on February 1, 1999 and/or February 12, 1999 advising the police to focus on Adnan, the voice on the phone sounded like an "Asian male 18-21 years old."
Sources: Serial
Other, uninvolved
27%
Other, involved
27%
Jay, uninvolved
23%
Jay, involved
23%
Other, uninvolved
27%
Other, involved
27%
Jay, uninvolved
23%
Jay, involved
23%
Police notes from Jay's third interview with the police on March 18, 1999 include a reference to a motorcycle for sale (“Mr. Brown” selling a Suzuki motorcycle, 600 CCs, with 9000 miles on it). Police then interviewed Karl Brown, the soccer coach at Woodlawn High, on March 23-24. Their pre-interview notes mention the Suzuki motorcycle that Brown had owned and sold.
Sources: Undisclosed
Other, uninvolved
25%
Other, involved
25%
Jay, uninvolved
26%
Jay, involved
25%
Other, uninvolved
25%
Other, involved
25%
Jay, uninvolved
26%
Jay, involved
25%
Police notes from Jay's interview with the police on March 18, 1999 include the word "reward."
Sources: Undisclosed
Other, uninvolved
24%
Other, involved
24%
Jay, uninvolved
29%
Jay, involved
24%
Other, uninvolved
24%
Other, involved
24%
Jay, uninvolved
29%
Jay, involved
24%
Approximately $3075 was awarded to an anonymous informant on December 1, 1999.
Sources: Undisclosed
Other, uninvolved
25%
Other, involved
25%
Jay, uninvolved
25%
Jay, involved
25%
Other, uninvolved
25%
Other, involved
25%
Jay, uninvolved
25%
Jay, involved
25%
Discussion
Serial: Who killed Hae Min Lee?