Background
This analysis is based on an older version of our inference model which is accurate but more difficult to read

Question

Who did Nisha talk to on Adnan's cell phone at 3:32 PM, January 13?

Serial: Who killed Hae Min Lee?

Scenariosinfo icon

Calculated Conclusionsinfo icon

Conclusionsinfo icon

1

62%
Adnan and Jay:
Nisha
talked to both Adnan and Jay during that phone call.
62%

2

27%
Pocket dial:
Nisha
didn't talk to either of them; Jay called her by mistake.
27%

3

10%
Jay:
Nisha
talked only to Jay during that phone call.
10%

4

0.002%
Call didn't happen:
Nisha
didn't talk to either of them; there was no call.
0.002%
Implied plausibility
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Likelihoods based only on other elements of the analysis, not considering evidence of this sub-topic.
Adnan and Jay
19%
Pocket dial
14%
Jay
13%
Call didn't happen
54%
Compatibility with evidence
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Likelihoods based only on evidence of this sub-topic, assuming all hypotheses equally plausible.
Adnan and Jay
62%
Pocket dial
27%
Jay
10%
Call didn't happen
0.002%
Conclusion
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Final likelihoods, combining plausibility and evidence.
Adnan and Jay
62%
Pocket dial
27%
Jay
10%
Call didn't happen
0.002%

Analysis

Evidence (2 items)

A call from Adnan's phone to
Nisha
's phone at 3:32 PM on January 13, 1999 lasted 2:22 minutes.
Sources: Cell phone call log
Adnan and Jay
47%
Pocket dial
33%
Jay
20%
Call didn't happen
0.0007%
Adnan and Jay
47%
Pocket dial
33%
Jay
20%
Call didn't happen
0.0007%
Nisha
said that she talked to both Adnan and Jay on the phone while they were at the video store that Jay worked in.
Sources: Serial
Adnan and Jay
30%
Pocket dial
26%
Jay
17%
Call didn't happen
26%
Adnan and Jay
30%
Pocket dial
26%
Jay
17%
Call didn't happen
26%

Discussioninfo icon

This topic is part of a broader analysis. To view the discussion page of the main analysis, click below:
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