Background
This analysis is based on an older version of our inference model which is accurate but more difficult to read

Question

Did Andrew Wakefield fabricate or otherwise modify the reports of an association in time between the administration of the MMR vaccine and the onset of behavioral symptoms of developmental regression in eight out of twelve children he studied?

Does the MMR (measles, mumps, and rubella) vaccine cause autism?

Scenariosinfo icon

Calculated Conclusionsinfo icon

Conclusionsinfo icon

1

99.9%
Fabricated report:

Yes, Andrew Wakefield fabricated or otherwise modified the reports showing an association in time of 6.3 days (range 1–14) between the administration of the MMR vaccine and the onset of behavioral symptoms of developmental regression in eight out of the twelve children he studied.

99.9%

2

0.1%
Accurate report:

No, Andrew Wakefield did not fabricate or otherwise modify the reports of an association in time of 6.3 days (range 1–14) between the administration of the MMR vaccine and the onset of behavioral symptoms of developmental regression in eight out of the twelve children he studied.

0.1%
Implied plausibility
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Likelihoods based only on other elements of the analysis, not considering evidence of this sub-topic.
Fabricated report
85%
Accurate report
15%
Compatibility with evidence
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Likelihoods based only on evidence of this sub-topic, assuming all hypotheses equally plausible.
Fabricated report
99.9%
Accurate report
0.1%
Conclusion
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Final likelihoods, combining plausibility and evidence.
Fabricated report
99.9%
Accurate report
0.1%

Analysis

Evidence (3 items)

Before beginning his research, Wakefield was paid by lawyers to find evidence that they could use in a lawsuit against vaccine manufacturers. Wakefield failed to report this conflict of interest.

Sources: UK Legal Services Comission
Fabricated report
61%
Accurate report
39%
Fabricated report
61%
Accurate report
39%

Andrew Wakefield filed a patent for his own measles vaccine before publishing his research paper in 1998. Wakefield failed to report this conflict of interest.

Sources: Andrew Wakefield's patent application
Fabricated report
91%
Accurate report
9%
Fabricated report
91%
Accurate report
9%

The data in Andrew Wakefield's study was manipulated in order to create a false association in time between the MMR vaccine and the onset of behavioral symptoms of developmental regression.

Sources: Brian Deer
Fabricated report
90%
Accurate report
10%
Fabricated report
90%
Accurate report
10%

Discussioninfo icon

This topic is part of a broader analysis. To view the discussion page of the main analysis, click below:
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