Background
This analysis is based on an older version of our inference model which is accurate but more difficult to read

Question

Is the image of a fighter jet firing on Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 authentic?

Who shot down Malaysia Airlines flight 17 over Ukraine on July 17, 2014?

Scenarios
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Calculated Conclusions
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Conclusions
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1

>99.9999%
Fake:

No, the image of a fighter jet firing on Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 was faked.

>99.9999%

2

<0.0001%
Authentic (other):
Yes, there is an authentic image of a fighter jet firing on Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 (but not of an Su-25).
<0.0001%

3

<0.0001%
Authentic (Su-25):

Yes, there is an authentic image of an Su-25 fighter jet firing on Malaysia Airlines flight MH17.

<0.0001%
Implied plausibility
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Likelihoods based only on other elements of the analysis, not considering evidence of this sub-topic.
Fake

99.98%

Authentic (other)

0.02%

Authentic (Su-25)

0.001%

Compatibility with evidence
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Likelihoods based only on evidence of this sub-topic, assuming all hypotheses equally plausible.
Fake

>99.9999%

Authentic (other)

<0.0001%

Authentic (Su-25)

<0.0001%

Conclusion
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Final likelihoods, combining plausibility and evidence.
Fake

>99.9999%

Authentic (other)

<0.0001%

Authentic (Su-25)

<0.0001%

Analysis

Evidence (6 items)

In the image of a fighter jet firing on MH17, the wings on the jet are angled backwards.

Jet firing on MH17
Jet firing on MH17
www.dailymail.co.uk
Fake

50%

Authentic (other)

50%

Authentic (Su-25)

0.0006%

Fake

50%

Authentic (other)

50%

Authentic (Su-25)

0.0006%

The topography and layout of the picture show the fighter jet just southwest of Donetsk and MH17 just north of Donetsk.

The image in question superimposed over a map of the area
The image in question superimposed over a map of the area
www.bellingcat.com
Fake

99.98%

Authentic (other)

0.01%

Authentic (Su-25)

0.01%

Fake

99.98%

Authentic (other)

0.01%

Authentic (Su-25)

0.01%

In the image of a fighter jet firing on MH17, the timestamp is in standard time rather than military time.

Timestamp on the image of an Su-25 shooting down MH17
Timestamp on the image of an Su-25 shooting down MH17
willyloman.wordpress.com
Fake

50%

Authentic (other)

25%

Authentic (Su-25)

25%

Fake

50%

Authentic (other)

25%

Authentic (Su-25)

25%

In the image of a fighter jet firing on MH17, the logo on MH17 is exclusively in front of the wing of the plane.
The plane purported to be MH17 compared to an acknowledged Malaysia Airlines plane
The plane purported to be MH17 compared to an acknowledged Malaysia Airlines plane
i.imgur.com
Fake

33%

Authentic (other)

33%

Authentic (Su-25)

33%

Fake

33%

Authentic (other)

33%

Authentic (Su-25)

33%

In the image showing a fighter jet firing on MH 17, the image of the plane is large.
Photoshopped image of what the plane should have looked from a satellite photo
Photoshopped image of what the plane should have looked from a satellite photo
imgur.com
Fake

50%

Authentic (other)

25%

Authentic (Su-25)

25%

Fake

50%

Authentic (other)

25%

Authentic (Su-25)

25%

The image shows an air-to-air missile shooting from a fighter jet towards MH17.

The firing of the air-to-air missile is visible in the image
The firing of the air-to-air missile is visible in the image
www.dailymail.co.uk
Fake

96.8%

Authentic (other)

1.6%

Authentic (Su-25)

1.6%

Fake

96.8%

Authentic (other)

1.6%

Authentic (Su-25)

1.6%

Discussion
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This topic is part of a broader analysis. To view the discussion page of the main analysis, click below:
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Anatoli Zinin

May 26, 2018 at 8:59 PM

The image shows an air-to-air missile shooting from a fighter jet towards MH17.

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Anatoli Zinin

May 26, 2018 at 8:45 PM

In the image showing a fighter jet firing on MH 17, the image of the plane is large.