Background
This analysis is based on an older version of our inference model which is accurate but more difficult to read

Question

Who shot down Malaysia Airlines flight 17 over Ukraine on July 17, 2014?

Hypotheses
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Calculated Conclusions
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Conclusions
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1

95.3%
DNR (BUK):

The Donetsk People's Republic (DNR) shot down MH17 using a surface-to-air missile (mistaking it for a Ukrainian military plane).

95.3%

2

2.2%
UA mistake (jet):

The Ukrainian government shot down MH17 using an air-to-air missile (mistaking it for an enemy plane).

2.2%

3

2%
UA mistake (BUK):

The Ukrainian government shot down MH17 using a surface-to-air missile (during a training exercise).

2%

4

0.5%
UA framed DNR (jet):

The Ukrainian government shot down MH17 using an air-to-air missile (in order to frame the DNR).

0.5%

Summary

In July 2014, Ukraine was fighting with the Donetsk People's Republic (DNR), a separatist organization and self-proclaimed state in the Ukraine that supports Russia. On July 17, 2014, Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 was shot down and crashed over DNR territory.

The evidence strongly points that the DNR shot down MH17, mistaking it for a military plane. Multiple joyful reports of the successful shoot-down (prior to it being identified as civilian) are significant evidence to that effect. Most notable among these reports is a post by a DNR commander saying the DNR had shot down a military plane that afternoon - a post that was removed an hour later.

Two pieces of evidence stand out against the DNR hypothesis. The first is a satellite image showing a Ukrainian plane shooting at MH17. Close inspection of this image identifies many obvious signs of fabrication. The second is the low likelihood of a rebel group having the capability to shoot down a commercial flight at 30,000 feet. This evidence is contradicted by multiple images of a BUK (a Soviet surface-to-air missile system) traveling through Donetsk around the time of the crash.

To claim that someone other than the DNR shot down MH17 requires two unlikely assumptions: That Ukraine conducted a very wide and effective fabrication effort of the BUK images, and that a major misunderstanding caused DNR to falsely believe they downed the plane.

Key Evidence
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Contribution
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1

A video of a BUK missing a missile shows a background consistent with a location in

Luhansk
: a billboard with a picture of a car, a red and white building with a red and white chimney, and wires which have a thick multiple connection just beside a thinner multiple connection.

Sources: Ukraine Ministry of Internal Affairs
DNR (BUK)

23%

UA mistake (jet)

3.9%

UA mistake (BUK)

36%

UA framed DNR (jet)

36%

DNR (BUK)

23%

UA mistake (jet)

3.9%

UA mistake (BUK)

36%

UA framed DNR (jet)

36%

2
Scenario A:

The DNR shot down Malaysia Airlines flight MH17. There was no fighting in the area of the crash.

Scenario B:

Ukraine shot down Malaysia Airlines flight MH17. There was no fighting in the area of the crash.

Scenario C:

The DNR shot down Malaysia Airlines flight MH17. There was heavy fighting in the area of the crash.

Scenario D:

Ukraine shot down Malaysia Airlines flight MH17. There was heavy fighting in the area of the crash.

Crash scene
Crash scene
accrareport.com
DNR (BUK)

61%

UA mistake (jet)

13%

UA mistake (BUK)

13%

UA framed DNR (jet)

13%

DNR (BUK)

61%

UA mistake (jet)

13%

UA mistake (BUK)

13%

UA framed DNR (jet)

13%

3

A DNR commander (Alexander Khodakovsky, commander of the Vostok Battalion) said that the DNR had access to a BUK missile system. He claims that the Ukraine knew of it and provoked them to use it by starting an air strike at the time MH17 flew over the area.

Sources: Reuters
Alexander Khodakovsky, commander of the Vostok Battalion
Alexander Khodakovsky, commander of the Vostok Battalion
commons.wikimedia.org
DNR (BUK)

46%

UA mistake (jet)

44%

UA mistake (BUK)

5%

UA framed DNR (jet)

5%

DNR (BUK)

46%

UA mistake (jet)

44%

UA mistake (BUK)

5%

UA framed DNR (jet)

5%

4

AP reporters confirmed that a BUK missile launcher was in

Snizhne
 on July 17, 2014 at approximately 1:20 PM (the time when MH17 was shot down).

Sources: Associated Press
DNR (BUK)

44%

UA mistake (jet)

41%

UA mistake (BUK)

7%

UA framed DNR (jet)

9%

DNR (BUK)

44%

UA mistake (jet)

41%

UA mistake (BUK)

7%

UA framed DNR (jet)

9%

5

A secret witness said that of the Ukrainian air force planes that left the base on July 17, 2014, two were shot down, and the one that returned no longer had its air-to-air missiles.

Sources: Komsomolskaya Pravda
DNR (BUK)

8%

UA mistake (jet)

42%

UA mistake (BUK)

8%

UA framed DNR (jet)

42%

DNR (BUK)

8%

UA mistake (jet)

42%

UA mistake (BUK)

8%

UA framed DNR (jet)

42%

Combined contribution of 28 remaining elements.
DNR (BUK)

93%

UA mistake (jet)

0.5%

UA mistake (BUK)

0.002%

UA framed DNR (jet)

7%

Analysis

Evidence
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Starting Point (1 item)

DNR's experience with BUKs (3 items)

The Ukrainian intelligence service reported that the DNR received instructions from Russian military and "discussed receipt, disposition (including hiding), and use of BUKs to bring down Ukrainian planes."

Sources: Forbes
DNR (BUK)

13%

UA mistake (jet)

11%

UA mistake (BUK)

27%

UA framed DNR (jet)

49%

DNR (BUK)

13%

UA mistake (jet)

11%

UA mistake (BUK)

27%

UA framed DNR (jet)

49%

In 2015, a DNR commander (Andrei Purgin) said they did not have the capability to shoot down a plane.

Sources: Reuters
Andrei Purgin, co-founder and chairman of the Donetsk People's Republic
Andrei Purgin, co-founder and chairman of the Donetsk People's Republic
novorossiyadailysun.wordpress.com
DNR (BUK)

18%

UA mistake (jet)

15%

UA mistake (BUK)

34%

UA framed DNR (jet)

34%

DNR (BUK)

18%

UA mistake (jet)

15%

UA mistake (BUK)

34%

UA framed DNR (jet)

34%

Ukrainian intelligence said that BUK units were shipped out of eastern Ukraine in the early morning of July 18.

Sources: The Wall Street Journal
DNR (BUK)

30%

UA mistake (jet)

5%

UA mistake (BUK)

33%

UA framed DNR (jet)

33%

DNR (BUK)

30%

UA mistake (jet)

5%

UA mistake (BUK)

33%

UA framed DNR (jet)

33%

Evidence of a BUK in Donetsk (11 items)

On July 17 a picture was posted (on the VKontakte website) of a BUK on a truck with a white cab and a blue double swish, a red bed, and a yellow sign in

Torez
.

A BUK launcher is driven through Torez.
A BUK launcher is driven through Torez.
vk.com
DNR (BUK)

23%

UA mistake (jet)

21%

UA mistake (BUK)

24%

UA framed DNR (jet)

32%

DNR (BUK)

23%

UA mistake (jet)

21%

UA mistake (BUK)

24%

UA framed DNR (jet)

32%

An international paper with no ties to Ukraine or the DNR (Paris Match) published a picture they reported to have taken of a BUK launcher on the road between

Donetsk City
and
Snizhne
(on the
Makiivka
Highway) on July 17, 2014.

Paris Match photo of a BUK launcher on the Makiivka Highway
Paris Match photo of a BUK launcher on the Makiivka Highway
www.parismatch.com
DNR (BUK)

40%

UA mistake (jet)

38%

UA mistake (BUK)

9%

UA framed DNR (jet)

13%

DNR (BUK)

40%

UA mistake (jet)

38%

UA mistake (BUK)

9%

UA framed DNR (jet)

13%

A video posted on July 17, 2014, shows an armored vehicle driving on a dual-carriageway.

DNR (BUK)

22%

UA mistake (jet)

20%

UA mistake (BUK)

25%

UA framed DNR (jet)

33%

DNR (BUK)

22%

UA mistake (jet)

20%

UA mistake (BUK)

25%

UA framed DNR (jet)

33%

A video posted on August 6, 2014, ostensibly shows a BUK being driven by a white truck with a blue double swish and a red bed up a hill in

Zuhres
.

Sources: Kamelot cz
DNR (BUK)

40%

UA mistake (jet)

37%

UA mistake (BUK)

10%

UA framed DNR (jet)

13%

DNR (BUK)

40%

UA mistake (jet)

37%

UA mistake (BUK)

10%

UA framed DNR (jet)

13%

AP reporters confirmed that a BUK missile launcher was in

Snizhne
 on July 17, 2014 at approximately 1:20 PM (the time when MH17 was shot down).

Sources: Associated Press
DNR (BUK)

44%

UA mistake (jet)

41%

UA mistake (BUK)

7%

UA framed DNR (jet)

9%

DNR (BUK)

44%

UA mistake (jet)

41%

UA mistake (BUK)

7%

UA framed DNR (jet)

9%

According to Twitter users, a BUK traveled towards

Makiivka
, and through
Shakhtarsk
 and
Torez
on July 17, 2014.

Tweet saying that a BUK missile launcher traveled through Shakhtersk
Tweet saying that a BUK missile launcher traveled through Shakhtersk
vntinnhanh.vn
DNR (BUK)

32%

UA mistake (jet)

29%

UA mistake (BUK)

17%

UA framed DNR (jet)

22%

DNR (BUK)

32%

UA mistake (jet)

29%

UA mistake (BUK)

17%

UA framed DNR (jet)

22%

A picture showed a truck with a white cab and a blue double swish, a red bed, and a yellow sign transporting equipment in Donetsk a few weeks after MH17 was shot down.

Sources: Informator
A truck with a white cab, blue double swish, red bed, and a sign on the side drives in Donetsk on August 6, 2014.
A truck with a white cab, blue double swish, red bed, and a sign on the side drives in Donetsk on August 6, 2014.
www.bellingcat.com
DNR (BUK)

34%

UA mistake (jet)

31%

UA mistake (BUK)

15%

UA framed DNR (jet)

20%

DNR (BUK)

34%

UA mistake (jet)

31%

UA mistake (BUK)

15%

UA framed DNR (jet)

20%

A video of a BUK missing a missile shows a background consistent with a location in

Luhansk
: a billboard with a picture of a car, a red and white building with a red and white chimney, and wires which have a thick multiple connection just beside a thinner multiple connection.

Sources: Ukraine Ministry of Internal Affairs
DNR (BUK)

23%

UA mistake (jet)

3.9%

UA mistake (BUK)

36%

UA framed DNR (jet)

36%

DNR (BUK)

23%

UA mistake (jet)

3.9%

UA mistake (BUK)

36%

UA framed DNR (jet)

36%

Out of all the evidence (tweets, images, videos) regarding a BUK launcher traveling through Donetsk, there are no obvious fabrication failures.
DNR (BUK)

41%

UA mistake (jet)

39%

UA mistake (BUK)

9%

UA framed DNR (jet)

12%

DNR (BUK)

41%

UA mistake (jet)

39%

UA mistake (BUK)

9%

UA framed DNR (jet)

12%

A DNR commander (Alexander Khodakovsky, commander of the Vostok Battalion) said that the DNR had access to a BUK missile system. He claims that the Ukraine knew of it and provoked them to use it by starting an air strike at the time MH17 flew over the area.

Sources: Reuters
Alexander Khodakovsky, commander of the Vostok Battalion
Alexander Khodakovsky, commander of the Vostok Battalion
commons.wikimedia.org
DNR (BUK)

46%

UA mistake (jet)

44%

UA mistake (BUK)

5%

UA framed DNR (jet)

5%

DNR (BUK)

46%

UA mistake (jet)

44%

UA mistake (BUK)

5%

UA framed DNR (jet)

5%

A video showed a BUK being driven by a white truck with a blue double swish and a red bed through

Makiivka
 (a town just East of
Donetsk City
).

A video showing a BUK being driven through Makiivka
DNR (BUK)

30%

UA mistake (jet)

30%

UA mistake (BUK)

20%

UA framed DNR (jet)

20%

DNR (BUK)

30%

UA mistake (jet)

30%

UA mistake (BUK)

20%

UA framed DNR (jet)

20%

DNR communications (4 items)

The Ukrainian intelligence service provided a transmission in which a DNR soldier purportedly said they had a BUK launcher.

Sources: Forbes
DNR (BUK)

27%

UA mistake (jet)

26%

UA mistake (BUK)

18%

UA framed DNR (jet)

29%

DNR (BUK)

27%

UA mistake (jet)

26%

UA mistake (BUK)

18%

UA framed DNR (jet)

29%

A DNR soldier reported that they had shot down a plane around 4:10 PM, which crashed northwest of

Snizhne
(Enakievo / Yenakijeve, which is near the
crash site
at Grabove).

Sources: The Security Service of Ukraine
DNR (BUK)

33%

UA mistake (jet)

19%

UA mistake (BUK)

24%

UA framed DNR (jet)

24%

DNR (BUK)

33%

UA mistake (jet)

19%

UA mistake (BUK)

24%

UA framed DNR (jet)

24%

Igor Girkin, one of the leaders of the DNR, posted a Twitter message at 4:50 local time on July 17, 2014 that the DNR had shot down an AN-26 and possibly a Su-type plane. He later deleted the tweet.

Sources: Wayback Machine, Баба і кіт
Igor Girkin posted a message on social media implying that DNR shot down a plane.
Igor Girkin posted a message on social media implying that DNR shot down a plane.
www.csmonitor.com
DNR (BUK)

33%

UA mistake (jet)

19%

UA mistake (BUK)

24%

UA framed DNR (jet)

24%

DNR (BUK)

33%

UA mistake (jet)

19%

UA mistake (BUK)

24%

UA framed DNR (jet)

24%

In an internal transmission on July 17, 2014 between 5:10 and 5:40 pm, DNR rebels reported that the plane shot down was a civilian plane. The person referred to as "Major" asked if there were any weapons or documents, but was told there were only civilian items.

Sources: The Security Service of Ukraine
DNR (BUK)

33%

UA mistake (jet)

19%

UA mistake (BUK)

24%

UA framed DNR (jet)

24%

DNR (BUK)

33%

UA mistake (jet)

19%

UA mistake (BUK)

24%

UA framed DNR (jet)

24%

Crash scene (4 items)

Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 was struck primarily on the left side of the plane at the cockpit, engine, wing, tail, and stabilizer.

Sources: The preliminary report of the International Commission
Damage to MH17
Damage to MH17
mignews.com.ua
DNR (BUK)

23%

UA mistake (jet)

28%

UA mistake (BUK)

22%

UA framed DNR (jet)

28%

DNR (BUK)

23%

UA mistake (jet)

28%

UA mistake (BUK)

22%

UA framed DNR (jet)

28%

There were many holes in the remains of Malaysia Airlines flight MH17.

Shrapnel holes in Malaysia Airlines flight 17
Shrapnel holes in Malaysia Airlines flight 17
www.nytimes.com
DNR (BUK)

30%

UA mistake (jet)

25%

UA mistake (BUK)

19%

UA framed DNR (jet)

25%

DNR (BUK)

30%

UA mistake (jet)

25%

UA mistake (BUK)

19%

UA framed DNR (jet)

25%

Scenario A:

The DNR shot down Malaysia Airlines flight MH17. There was no fighting in the area of the crash.

Scenario B:

Ukraine shot down Malaysia Airlines flight MH17. There was no fighting in the area of the crash.

Scenario C:

The DNR shot down Malaysia Airlines flight MH17. There was heavy fighting in the area of the crash.

Scenario D:

Ukraine shot down Malaysia Airlines flight MH17. There was heavy fighting in the area of the crash.

Crash scene
Crash scene
accrareport.com
DNR (BUK)

61%

UA mistake (jet)

13%

UA mistake (BUK)

13%

UA framed DNR (jet)

13%

DNR (BUK)

61%

UA mistake (jet)

13%

UA mistake (BUK)

13%

UA framed DNR (jet)

13%

Scenario A:

The DNR was tampering with the evidence contained in the black boxes.

Scenario B:

The DNR was concerned that Ukraine would tamper with the evidence contained within the black boxes.

Scenario C:

The DNR was unconcerned regarding the black boxes.

DNR (BUK)

18%

UA mistake (jet)

27%

UA mistake (BUK)

27%

UA framed DNR (jet)

27%

DNR (BUK)

18%

UA mistake (jet)

27%

UA mistake (BUK)

27%

UA framed DNR (jet)

27%

In the air above Snizhne (6 items)

A DNR commander (Alexander Khodakovsky, the commander of DNR's Vostok Battalion) said that Ukraine launched an air strike on

Snizhne
at the time when Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 was shot down nearby.

Sources: Reuters
Bombings in Snizhne, July 2014.
Bombings in Snizhne, July 2014.
news.vice.com
DNR (BUK)

40%

UA mistake (jet)

20%

UA mistake (BUK)

20%

UA framed DNR (jet)

20%

DNR (BUK)

40%

UA mistake (jet)

20%

UA mistake (BUK)

20%

UA framed DNR (jet)

20%

Radar shows a few objects close together in the vicinity of Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 just after it was shot down.

Sources: An air traffic control center in Rostov, Russia
Russian radar shows blips in the vicinity just after Malaysia Airline flight MH17 was shot down down
Russian radar shows blips in the vicinity just after Malaysia Airline flight MH17 was shot down down
www.dailymail.co.uk
DNR (BUK)

27%

UA mistake (jet)

30%

UA mistake (BUK)

13%

UA framed DNR (jet)

30%

DNR (BUK)

27%

UA mistake (jet)

30%

UA mistake (BUK)

13%

UA framed DNR (jet)

30%

A secret witness said that of the Ukrainian air force planes that left the base on July 17, 2014, two were shot down, and the one that returned no longer had its air-to-air missiles.

Sources: Komsomolskaya Pravda
DNR (BUK)

8%

UA mistake (jet)

42%

UA mistake (BUK)

8%

UA framed DNR (jet)

42%

DNR (BUK)

8%

UA mistake (jet)

42%

UA mistake (BUK)

8%

UA framed DNR (jet)

42%

A fighter plane fired on flight MH17.

Scenario A:

Yes, there is an authentic image of an Su-25 fighter jet firing on Malaysia Airlines flight MH17.

Scenario B:

No, the image of a fighter jet firing on Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 was faked.

Scenario C:
Yes, there is an authentic image of a fighter jet firing on Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 (but not of an Su-25).
A satellite image posted by Russian state television Channel One shows a Ukrainian fighter plane firing on flight MH17.
A satellite image posted by Russian state television Channel One shows a Ukrainian fighter plane firing on flight MH17.
DNR (BUK)

33%

UA mistake (jet)

17%

UA mistake (BUK)

33%

UA framed DNR (jet)

17%

DNR (BUK)

33%

UA mistake (jet)

17%

UA mistake (BUK)

33%

UA framed DNR (jet)

17%

An anonymous source said that Ukraine was running a BUK training exercise near

Snizhne
at the time MH17 was shot down on July 17, 2014.

Sources: RIA Novosti
DNR (BUK)

30%

UA mistake (jet)

23%

UA mistake (BUK)

24%

UA framed DNR (jet)

23%

DNR (BUK)

30%

UA mistake (jet)

23%

UA mistake (BUK)

24%

UA framed DNR (jet)

23%

Authorities in Kiev said that Ukraine did not deploy any jets on July 17, 2014.

Sources: RT
DNR (BUK)

18%

UA mistake (jet)

35%

UA mistake (BUK)

12%

UA framed DNR (jet)

35%

DNR (BUK)

18%

UA mistake (jet)

35%

UA mistake (BUK)

12%

UA framed DNR (jet)

35%

Other evidence (4 items)

Social media reported that a vertical column of smoke was spotted outside

Snizhne
at the time that Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 crashed.

A column of smoke outside Snizhne
A column of smoke outside Snizhne
www.telegraph.co.uk
DNR (BUK)

32%

UA mistake (jet)

11%

UA mistake (BUK)

19%

UA framed DNR (jet)

38%

DNR (BUK)

32%

UA mistake (jet)

11%

UA mistake (BUK)

19%

UA framed DNR (jet)

38%

When a Russian military commander (Cossak Ataman Nikolay Kozitsyn) was asked if he knew who shot down Malaysia Airlines flight MH17, he first responded "a missile," and when pressed he responded "no comment" (even though until then he had explained himself and answered questions).

Sources: Vice News
DNR (BUK)

40%

UA mistake (jet)

20%

UA mistake (BUK)

20%

UA framed DNR (jet)

20%

DNR (BUK)

40%

UA mistake (jet)

20%

UA mistake (BUK)

20%

UA framed DNR (jet)

20%

The missile that hit Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 was launched from the area of 

Snizhne
.

Sources: US intelligence
Missile launched from Snizhne
Missile launched from Snizhne
www.bloomberg.com
DNR (BUK)

40%

UA mistake (jet)

24%

UA mistake (BUK)

11%

UA framed DNR (jet)

24%

DNR (BUK)

40%

UA mistake (jet)

24%

UA mistake (BUK)

11%

UA framed DNR (jet)

24%

Russian intelligence said that on the day the Malaysian airliner crashed, Ukrainian forces had an air defense group, including a BUK-M1 missile launcher, near Donetsk.

Sources: RT
DNR (BUK)

27%

UA mistake (jet)

27%

UA mistake (BUK)

20%

UA framed DNR (jet)

27%

DNR (BUK)

27%

UA mistake (jet)

27%

UA mistake (BUK)

20%

UA framed DNR (jet)

27%

Storyline Assumptions
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Assumptions that derive from the evidence above are presented and evaluated here for each hypothesis.
Storyline assumptions:
Likelihood given hypothesis
(including preceding assumptions)

Discussion
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userIcon
user avatar

Anatoli Zinin

May 26, 2018 at 8:15 PM

Authorities in Kiev said that Ukraine did not deploy any jets on July 17, 2014.

user icon

coobit

Apr 18, 2018 at 12:47 PM

"Almaz-Antey" shows that a location from which the rocket launch was made, was in Ukrainian controlled territory at the time.

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Rootclaim

May 9, 2018 at 7:50 AM

Thanks for the suggestion. As you point out, the damage to MH17 indicates that it’s more likely that the missile was launched from Zaroschenskoe and not Snizhne. This has been acknowledged in the analysis, and the relative likelihoods have been incorporated.

user icon

Arcayer

May 9, 2017 at 5:30 PM

"Under this hypothesis it is assumed that the DNR shot down MH17, but the specific weapons used to do so have not been assumed."- This is false. The hypothesis (DNR(BUK)) assumes that the specific weapon was a BUK.

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Rootclaim

May 14, 2017 at 5:49 AM

The BUK was mentioned in the Hypothesis name for clarity.
However, in the starting point, calculations are made based on who shot down the plane, not based on what technology was used. For example, when planes were shot down by rebel forces, it was often done via MANPADs while the plane was taking off or landing. In the Assumptions, we account for the BUK.

user avatar

Lena Kiev

Dec 7, 2016 at 7:28 PM

A crew (an officer and 3 soldiers) from Kursk, Russia in a Buk surface-to-air missile launcher from Kursk shot down MH17 from Russia-occupied part of Ukraine misleadingly named "DNR".

user avatar

Anatoli Zinin

May 26, 2018 at 7:56 PM

Both versions with BUK (Russian BUK from Kursk and Ukrainian BUK from Zaroschenskoe ) have to be rejected since NOBODY has heard and/or seen a launch itself. In August 1978 I've a chance to see a launch from BUK's predecessor KUB 2K12 at the Berdiansk firing range being about a mile from the launcher, and I was stunned by a deafeninhg roar. Also, a huge plume behind a missile and an explosion cloud were clearly visible for a few minutes until they started to fade.
As far as I know, the only picture allegedly showing barely visible "plume" has been presented by Mr. Anton Geraschenko, Ukrainian MP.

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Rootclaim

Dec 18, 2016 at 1:30 PM

Thanks for your suggestions! This seems to be a variation on the “DNR” hypothesis - the only difference being who specifically manned the BUK that Russia supplied. We’ve widened the hypothesis to include a crew of either Russian or DNR soldiers, and added some evidence from the links that you supplied. Looking forward to your next contribution!

user avatar

Ian Colville

Dec 7, 2016 at 10:13 AM

There were many holes in the remains of Malaysia Airlines flight MH17.

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Rootclaim

Dec 12, 2016 at 9:14 AM

1. That does seem significant, if it's true. Do you have other examples (such as pictures) for comparison to either cannon fire or damage from a BUK missile?
2. Some sources suggest that a SU-25 can’t even fly that high, but certain pilots say they’ve personally flown that high. Do you have reliable evidence one way or the other?
3. There seems to be a bunch of claims surrounding this jet shootdown theory, some of them contradictory https://www.bellingcat.com/news/uk-and-europe/2015/01/10/su-25-mh17-and-the-problems-with-keeping-a-story-straight/