Background
This analysis is based on an older version of our inference model which is accurate but more difficult to read

Question

Was there fighting at the crash site (taking into account who shot down the plane)?

Who shot down Malaysia Airlines flight 17 over Ukraine on July 17, 2014?

Scenarios
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Calculated Conclusions
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Conclusions
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1

91%
Fighting (DNR):

The DNR shot down Malaysia Airlines flight MH17. There was heavy fighting in the area of the crash.

91%

2

9%
No fighting (DNR):

The DNR shot down Malaysia Airlines flight MH17. There was no fighting in the area of the crash.

9%

3

0.02%
Fighting (UA):

Ukraine shot down Malaysia Airlines flight MH17. There was heavy fighting in the area of the crash.

0.02%

4

0.001%
No fighting (UA):

Ukraine shot down Malaysia Airlines flight MH17. There was no fighting in the area of the crash.

0.001%
Implied plausibility
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Likelihoods based only on other elements of the analysis, not considering evidence of this sub-topic.
Fighting (DNR)

30%

No fighting (DNR)

70%

Fighting (UA)

0.02%

No fighting (UA)

0.06%

Compatibility with evidence
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Likelihoods based only on evidence of this sub-topic, assuming all hypotheses equally plausible.
Fighting (DNR)

91%

No fighting (DNR)

9%

Fighting (UA)

0.02%

No fighting (UA)

0.001%

Conclusion
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Final likelihoods, combining plausibility and evidence.
Fighting (DNR)

91%

No fighting (DNR)

9%

Fighting (UA)

0.02%

No fighting (UA)

0.001%

Analysis

Evidence (2 items)

Rebel forces did not allow full access to the

crash site
of Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 for more than three days.

Sources: The Wire
Fighting (DNR)

58%

No fighting (DNR)

26%

Fighting (UA)

13%

No fighting (UA)

3.2%

Fighting (DNR)

58%

No fighting (DNR)

26%

Fighting (UA)

13%

No fighting (UA)

3.2%

There was heavy fighting in the area of the MH17

crash site
.

Sources: BBC
Fighting (DNR)

45%

No fighting (DNR)

4.5%

Fighting (UA)

45%

No fighting (UA)

4.5%

Fighting (DNR)

45%

No fighting (DNR)

4.5%

Fighting (UA)

45%

No fighting (UA)

4.5%

Discussion
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This topic is part of a broader analysis. To view the discussion page of the main analysis, click below:
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Steven

Oct 9, 2016 at 12:57 PM

There was heavy fighting in the area of the MH17 crash site.