Background
This analysis is based on an older version of our inference model which is accurate but more difficult to read

Question

What was the DNR's concern with the black boxes?

Who shot down Malaysia Airlines flight 17 over Ukraine on July 17, 2014?

Scenariosinfo icon

Calculated Conclusionsinfo icon

Conclusionsinfo icon

1

40%
DNR tamper:

The DNR was tampering with the evidence contained in the black boxes.

40%

2

39%
Unconcerned:

The DNR was unconcerned regarding the black boxes.

39%

3

20%
UA tamper:

The DNR was concerned that Ukraine would tamper with the evidence contained within the black boxes.

20%
Implied plausibility
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Likelihoods based only on other elements of the analysis, not considering evidence of this sub-topic.
DNR tamper
25%
Unconcerned
65%
UA tamper
10%
Compatibility with evidence
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Likelihoods based only on evidence of this sub-topic, assuming all hypotheses equally plausible.
DNR tamper
40%
Unconcerned
39%
UA tamper
20%
Conclusion
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Final likelihoods, combining plausibility and evidence.
DNR tamper
40%
Unconcerned
39%
UA tamper
20%

Analysis

Evidence (2 items)

In an internal transmission, the DNR wanted to make sure that the black boxes from Malaysian airlines flight MH17 didn't fall into the hands of strangers.

Sources: Ukraine's security services
DNR tamper
36%
Unconcerned
26%
UA tamper
38%
DNR tamper
36%
Unconcerned
26%
UA tamper
38%

The DNR said they were concerned that Ukraine might tamper with the devices.

Sources: The Wall Street Journal
DNR tamper
37%
Unconcerned
20%
UA tamper
44%
DNR tamper
37%
Unconcerned
20%
UA tamper
44%

Discussioninfo icon

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