Background
This analysis is based on an older version of our inference model which is accurate but more difficult to read

Question

Why was Seth Rich killed?

29 Sep, 2016

Hypothesesinfo icon

Calculated Conclusionsinfo icon

Conclusionsinfo icon

1

89%
Robbery:
Seth Rich's murder was a robbery gone wrong.
89%

2

10%
Arranged - other:
Seth Rich's murder was arranged by an organization other than the Democratic National Committee.
10%

3

1.4%
Arranged - DNC:
Seth Rich's murder was arranged by the Democratic National Committee.
1.4%

Summary

On July 10, 2016, at 4:20 AM, DNC staffer Seth Rich was found suffering from gunshot wounds at an intersection near his home in Bloomingdale, Washington D.C. He died at a local hospital a few hours later. No arrests have been made so far in the subsequent investigation.

While the general assumption is that Rich died in a failed robbery attempt, some evidence, such as the fact that his belongings were not taken, gave rise to the theory that his murder had to do with his position at the DNC. When Julian Assange mentioned Rich a month after the murder these suspicions amplified, since Assange's words were interpreted by many to mean that Rich was a WikiLeaks source.

Rootclaim’s analysis finds that it is likely that Seth Rich’s murder was a robbery gone wrong.

On its own, the evidence does not differentiate well between the “Robbery” and the two “Arranged” hypotheses. On the one hand, some pieces of evidence, such as Rich’s possessions not being taken, are more likely under the “Arranged” hypotheses. On the other hand, other pieces of evidence, such as Rich being found conscious and breathing, are more likely under the “Robbery” hypothesis. The main factor that distinguishes between these hypotheses is thus the Starting Point likelihoods. It is exceedingly rare for junior staffers in political parties, or even governments, to be murdered under circumstances related to their position. Robbery-murders are more common in comparison.

If Rich was killed because of his role as a DNC staffer, then it is more likely that the murder was arranged by an organization other than the DNC. This is because some evidence, such as Rich being hired for a new position in the Democratic Party, is less likely if the DNC arranged the murder. Moreover, in the Starting Point, it is less likely that the DNC arranged the murder than that another organization did so, because the latter option covers various organizations, including some that are more willing to resort to murder than the DNC.

The pieces of evidence that relate directly to Rich being a WikiLeaks source - including Assange’s interview - do suggest that it is plausible that Rich was a WikiLeaks source (and, consequently, support the hypothesis that the DNC arranged Rich’s murder). However, these pieces of evidence are not enough to counter the low likelihood assigned to this scenario when considering the analysis as a whole.

Overall, due to the higher Starting Point of the “Robbery” hypothesis and the ambiguity of the evidence, this Rootclaim analysis indicates that it is likely that Rich's death was a result of an attempted robbery.

Key Evidenceinfo icon

Contributioninfo icon

1
Four days before he was killed, Rich was hired to work for Clinton's presidential campaign.
Sources: Joel Rich, Seth's father, Joe Capone, Seth's friend
Joel Rich, Seth's father
Joel Rich, Seth's father
www.dailymail.co.uk
Robbery
45%
Arranged - other
45%
Arranged - DNC
9%
Robbery
45%
Arranged - other
45%
Arranged - DNC
9%
2

Rich was found conscious and breathing, and died in the hospital over an hour later.  

Sources: Metropolitan Police Department
Robbery
57%
Arranged - other
22%
Arranged - DNC
22%
Robbery
57%
Arranged - other
22%
Arranged - DNC
22%
3
Scenario A:
The DNC arranged Seth Rich's murder; he was a WikiLeaks source (in the DNC email leak). 
Scenario B:
The DNC arranged Seth Rich's murder; he was not a WikiLeaks source (in the DNC email leak).
Scenario C:
The DNC did not arrange Seth Rich's murder; he was a WikiLeaks source (in the DNC email leak).
Scenario D:
The DNC did not arrange Seth Rich's murder; he was not a WikiLeaks source (in the DNC email leak).
Robbery
19%
Arranged - other
26%
Arranged - DNC
55%
Robbery
19%
Arranged - other
26%
Arranged - DNC
55%
Combined contribution of 8 remaining elements.
Robbery
15%
Arranged - other
37%
Arranged - DNC
48%

Analysis

Evidenceinfo icon

Starting Point (1 item)

Possible Connection to WikiLeaks (1 item)

Scenario A:
The DNC arranged Seth Rich's murder; he was a WikiLeaks source (in the DNC email leak). 
Scenario B:
The DNC arranged Seth Rich's murder; he was not a WikiLeaks source (in the DNC email leak).
Scenario C:
The DNC did not arrange Seth Rich's murder; he was a WikiLeaks source (in the DNC email leak).
Scenario D:
The DNC did not arrange Seth Rich's murder; he was not a WikiLeaks source (in the DNC email leak).
Robbery
19%
Arranged - other
26%
Arranged - DNC
55%
Robbery
19%
Arranged - other
26%
Arranged - DNC
55%

After the Murder (3 items)

The Metropolitan Police Department offered a reward of up to $25,000 for information on the homicide.
The Metropolitan Police Department offers $25,000 for information about Rich's death
The Metropolitan Police Department offers $25,000 for information about Rich's death
www.dailymail.co.uk
Robbery
33%
Arranged - other
33%
Arranged - DNC
33%
Robbery
33%
Arranged - other
33%
Arranged - DNC
33%
Clinton mentioned Rich's murder as an example of gun violence on July 12, 2016.
Clinton on Seth Rich's shooting
Robbery
37%
Arranged - other
36%
Arranged - DNC
27%
Robbery
37%
Arranged - other
36%
Arranged - DNC
27%
Jack Burkman, a GOP lobbyist who offered a significant sum for information on the murder, reported that a source claiming to be a former U.S. intelligence officer told him that the Russian government arranged Rich's murder, but the source did not provide further details.
Sources: The Daily Mail
Jack Burkman
Jack Burkman
twitter.com
Robbery
31%
Arranged - other
38%
Arranged - DNC
31%
Robbery
31%
Arranged - other
38%
Arranged - DNC
31%

Crime Scene Evidence (5 items)

Rich had multiple gunshot wounds in his back.
Sources: Metropolitan Police Department
Robbery
18%
Arranged - other
41%
Arranged - DNC
41%
Robbery
18%
Arranged - other
41%
Arranged - DNC
41%
There were bruises on Rich's knuckles and face.
Sources: Metropolitan Police Department
Robbery
43%
Arranged - other
29%
Arranged - DNC
29%
Robbery
43%
Arranged - other
29%
Arranged - DNC
29%
Rich's wallet, credit cards, and cellphone were found on his body.
Sources: Metropolitan Police Department
Robbery
27%
Arranged - other
36%
Arranged - DNC
36%
Robbery
27%
Arranged - other
36%
Arranged - DNC
36%
Rich was accosted by two people.
Sources: Joel Rich, Seth's father
Robbery
41%
Arranged - other
29%
Arranged - DNC
29%
Robbery
41%
Arranged - other
29%
Arranged - DNC
29%

Rich was found conscious and breathing, and died in the hospital over an hour later.  

Sources: Metropolitan Police Department
Robbery
57%
Arranged - other
22%
Arranged - DNC
22%
Robbery
57%
Arranged - other
22%
Arranged - DNC
22%

Before the Murder (1 item)

Four days before he was killed, Rich was hired to work for Clinton's presidential campaign.
Sources: Joel Rich, Seth's father, Joe Capone, Seth's friend
Joel Rich, Seth's father
Joel Rich, Seth's father
www.dailymail.co.uk
Robbery
45%
Arranged - other
45%
Arranged - DNC
9%
Robbery
45%
Arranged - other
45%
Arranged - DNC
9%

Storyline Assumptionsinfo icon

Assumptions that derive from the evidence above are presented and evaluated here for each hypothesis.
Storyline assumptions:
Likelihood given hypothesis
(including preceding assumptions)

Discussioninfo icon

To view the discussion pages of the subanalyses, click below:
userIcon
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RuthSeeksTruth
Jan 21, 2021 at 7:27 PM
It is unfortunate that the media focus was 100% speculation on how the emails were made public instead of analyzing what was in them. The whole obsession with Russiagate blaming the election of Trump on Moscow deflected away from the complicity of the Democratic Party for the outcome. As it turned out, there was no evidence that Trump's campaign conspired with Russia. Clinton is to blame for her own loss. I don't know how Seth Rich died. I don't know who leaked the emails. Those aren't important to me personally. What is relevant to me is the emails showed me what Clinton said and did. The fact that she was saying one thing to the masses and the opposite to Wall Street. That the DNC rigged their primary. That she received fees for her speeches so high they can only be interpreted as bribes. That the UAE and other tyrants gave huge donations to her foundation. That should have been the focus of the conversation.
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RuthSeeksTruth
Jan 21, 2021 at 7:30 PM
Cont: I don't know how Seth Rich died. I don't know who leaked the emails. Those aren't important to me personally. What is relevant to me is the emails showed me what Clinton said and did. The fact that she was saying one thing to the masses and the opposite to Wall Street. That the DNC rigged their primary. That she received fees for her speeches so high they can only be interpreted as bribes. That the UAE and other tyrants gave huge donations to her foundation. That should have been the focus of the conversation.
user avatar
Torrey Sklogw
May 18, 2017 at 5:23 PM
Disgusted DNC staffer gave leaks to wikileaks
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Anon
Apr 8, 2017 at 7:51 AM
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Rootclaim
Apr 18, 2017 at 11:41 AM
Indeed, there may have been other interested parties who would be interested in silencing him. The likelihoods have been updated but not to the extent suggested, until further information surfaces. After all, being a WikiLeaks source is one of several possible motives under the "Arranged - other" hypothesis.